Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The current UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has announced his resignation as Labour leader but will remain in a caretaker role until a successor is appointed, meaning he has not been permanently removed from office. This distinction is critical for the prediction market, which requires permanent removal rather than a scheduled leadership change or temporary caretaker status to resolve as a "YES".

Historically, similar caretaker transitions—such as those following resignations where the incumbent stays until a new leader is chosen—do not count as permanent removals. For instance, impeachment suspensions like Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent case or provisional transfers under the 25th Amendment are explicitly excluded, and Starmer’s situation mirrors these temporary invocations rather than a final exit. The market’s 0% probability reflects this alignment with precedents where caretaker roles delay permanent removal beyond the settlement window.

Traders should monitor the leadership election timeline, which begins on 9 July and aims to conclude before the summer recess, as well as any unexpected announcements of a general election before 2027. Sky News reports secret meetings between Starmer and Andy Burnham, the likely successor, suggesting a swift transfer of power that would keep Starmer in office until mid-July. If no election is called before the settlement deadline of 31 December 2026, Starmer’s permanent removal remains unlikely, sustaining the current 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.