MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

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Market context

The player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season will determine the outcome of this contract, with the settlement window closing on 28 September 2026. On Polymarket today, the market prices the leading outcome at Nasim Nuñez and Bobby Witt Jr. both at 27%, reflecting real-time crowd-sourced probabilities where a 27¢ share implies a 27% collective chance [2]. The current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at a mere 8%, creating a stark divergence from traditional sportsbooks where Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz is the betting favourite at +300, implying a 25% probability [1].

Historically, stolen base leaders have fluctuated wildly due to injury and roster changes, yet projection systems like ATC at FanGraphs consistently identify De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson as the top contenders with 41 projected steals, while Witt Jr. trails slightly at 34 [1][7]. This volatility frames the current 8% probability as potentially undervalued, given that the on-chain market has not yet fully priced in the traditional betting favourite's dominance, a common lag in conditional token markets where USDC liquidity on Polygon reacts slower to external odds shifts [2].

Traders should monitor the Reds' upcoming schedule and De La Cruz's health status, as his speed is the primary catalyst for a breakout season, alongside any roster announcements for the Rays regarding Simpson [1]. Recent coverage from BetMGM highlights De La Cruz as the clear line favourite, suggesting that the on-chain price discrepancy may resolve as new information flows into the market [1]. The market will resolve in favour of the player with fewer caught stealings if a tie occurs, adding a secondary dependency that requires watching defensive metrics alongside pure stolen base counts [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.