Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

4 Anchors and Ilmeria have already secured a 2–0 victory over the bug in the Lower Bracket final of The International North America Closed Qualifier, meaning the match referenced in this prediction market has concluded before the settlement window. The on-chain contract on Polymarket, priced at 50% YES for 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, now reflects a resolved outcome rather than an active contest, with USDC payouts on Polygon conditional tokens locked to the confirmed winner.

Historically, similar qualifier markets in Dota 2 have resolved to the pre-match winner when matches are completed ahead of schedule, as seen in TI14 regional qualifiers where lower-bracket finals were decided in straight sets and conditional tokens automatically settled to the victor’s side. In those cases, crowd-implied probabilities shifted from 50% to near 100% once the result was live, confirming that resolved outcomes override abstract pricing models.

Traders should monitor official TI26 North America qualifier announcements for any post-match corrections or disqualifications, though no such updates have appeared since the 0:2 result was recorded on 26 June. Recent match statistics from GosuGamers confirm the 2–0 scoreline, and no dependencies remain that could alter the settlement, making the current 50% price a mispricing of a settled event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.