Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States Men’s National Team faces Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium on 25 June 2026, with kickoff at 10:00 PM ET. On Polymarket, the “Halftime Result – YES” contract for Türkiye leading at 45 minutes sits at 0% implied probability, reflecting near-total market confidence that the US will not trail after the first half. This pricing is settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where liquidity is thin but the directional bet is overwhelmingly clear.

Historically, the US has held a strong advantage over Türkiye in recent World Cup encounters, having won their last two group-stage matches while Türkiye lost both. In their only prior World Cup meeting, the US secured a 2–1 victory, and Türkiye has failed to score in their last three competitive games against top-tier opponents. Such patterns suggest that a 0% price for Türkiye leading at halftime is not an outlier but a rational reflection of form and head-to-head dominance[3][5].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late tactical shifts from either side, particularly whether the US deploys a high-pressing midfield to neutralise Türkiye’s early attacking threats. With the US already crowned Group D winners, there is little incentive for defensive caution, which may accelerate their lead. Recent coverage from NPR confirms the US’s group triumph and highlights Türkiye’s winless status, reinforcing the market’s bearish stance on a Turkish halftime lead[5][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.