Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Yellow Submarine face Virtus.pro in the Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a match originally set for 10:00AM ET today. On Polymarket, this contract sits at a 100% YES price for Yellow Submarine, implying absolute certainty of their victory before the first game begins. The market resolves to "Yellow Submarine" if they win the BO3, while a cancellation or tie triggers a 50-50 split, though the current pricing suggests no trader expects such an outcome.

Historical precedents for qualifier matches rarely show 100% implied probabilities unless one team is significantly outmatched or the other has withdrawn, yet Virtus.pro remains an active, high-calibre roster. In previous TI qualifiers, teams like Virtus.pro have recovered from early deficits to dominate, making this pricing an outlier compared to typical competitive volatility where even favourites hold 70-85% odds. Such extreme certainty often precedes a market correction if the match is delayed or if stand-in players, like ATF for Yellow Submarine mentioned in recent reports, alter the expected dynamics[5].

Traders must monitor the official start time confirmation and any roster announcements, as delays beyond seven days would force a 50-50 resolution. The match is scheduled for 14:00 UTC today on Sofascore, and any deviation from this slot requires immediate attention[3]. Recent news confirms both teams are competing with stand-ins for the Premier Series, which could impact performance consistency and should be weighed against the current pricing[5]. Watch for Liquipedia updates on roster changes, as absence of key players could invalidate the 100% assumption[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.