Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

TEAM VISION and Team Falcons are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 13 August 2026 at 05:00 ET. The conditional token market on Polymarket currently prices TEAM VISION's victory at 79%, reflecting substantial confidence in the Southeast Asian roster's performance. Settlement hinges on match completion; cancellation or a tied result triggers a 50-50 resolution, whilst postponement beyond 168 hours from the original start time voids the contract entirely.

Dota 2's International tournaments have historically favoured established regional powerhouses in group-stage matchups, though upsets remain common when roster chemistry or meta adaptation diverges sharply. TEAM VISION's recent performances in regional qualifiers and their seeding relative to Team Falcons' trajectory through the circuit provide the foundation for the current 79% pricing. Comparable group-stage encounters at prior Internationals show that favourites holding 75–80% implied probability typically convert at rates between 65–75%, suggesting the market may be pricing in some uncertainty around patch-specific preparation or player form.

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding any schedule adjustments, as The International's fixture list occasionally shifts due to technical issues or broadcast scheduling. Recent Dota 2 patch notes released in the weeks preceding the event will shape hero viability and team preparation timelines. Team rosters, stand-in availability, and any last-minute coaching changes should be tracked through official team social media and esports news outlets, as these factors have historically moved group-stage odds by 5–10 percentage points in the 72 hours before match time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.