What price will Bitcoin hit on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,000, with technical models suggesting a June floor of $61,818 and a potential rise to $65,543 by late June[1]. This 49% crowd-implied probability for the contract reflects a market caught between a recent peak of $126,000 and a consensus that the cycle bottom lies in Q4 2026, likely between $50,000 and $55,000[4]. Historical halving cycles and on-chain analytics from firms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant converge on late 2026 as the highest-probability window for the final low, framing today’s near-term price action as a volatile interim phase rather than a definitive reversal[4].

Traders monitoring this Polymarket contract, which settles on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, must watch the incoming chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose dovish stance is expected to clarify risk-asset direction after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May[2]. The market is also sensitive to anticipated interest rate cuts and growing institutional adoption, which could drive favourable price movements in the latter half of 2026[2]. While Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 target down to $150,000, other executives forecast a wide range between $75,000 and $225,000, underscoring the substantial volatility expected as the year progresses[2]. The current price near $63,000 sits above the 200-week moving average, offering a historically attractive entry point for patient investors despite the potential for further downside through mid-2026[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.