When will GPT-5.6 be released?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, which is an unusually hard discount for a calendar-sensitive release that would settle on the ET date OpenAI makes a model explicitly called GPT-5.6 public. On Polymarket, the position is backed by USDC on Polygon and represented through conditional tokens, so the market is effectively saying there is no credible path left to a qualifying launch before the settlement window closes. A zero print often reflects either very stale liquidity or a strong view that the event has already slipped beyond the deadline.

The comparison traders will keep in mind is GPT-5.5, which reportedly shipped in April, followed by repeated claims that GPT-5.6 would arrive on a compressed six-week cadence. That framing matters because a fast successor would normally support a non-zero price right up to launch week, especially if OpenAI had already been iterating through visible internal routing or Codex-related references. But the market’s current read implies that whatever early cadence expectations existed, they have not translated into confidence that a public release is still viable inside the settlement window.

The main catalysts are straightforward: any OpenAI announcement, a visible version bump in product routing, or a public rollout through ChatGPT, API access, or other qualifying surfaces. Traders will also watch whether OpenAI shifts attention to a broader ChatGPT overhaul or delays the model for safety, packaging, or deployment reasons. Recent reporting said OpenAI was targeting June for GPT-5.6 and that chief scientist Jakub Pachocki described it as a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5, but that is still only reporting, not a public release signal[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.