Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either incomplete liquidity or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will contain the daily maximum. Traders are pricing USDC-denominated conditional tokens against a binary outcome structure, with settlement contingent on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when station equipment records micro-variations throughout the day.

Wuhan's August climate presents a predictable baseline: the city averages 32–34°C during mid-summer, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–39°C during heat waves. Historical data from 2013 to 2023 shows August 11 specifically has ranged between 29°C and 36°C, with most years clustering around 33–35°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects either a market-opening artefact or genuine disagreement about which temperature bracket the settlement will fall into, rather than doubt about whether a maximum will be recorded.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional heat patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in summer 2026 will influence whether the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system intensifies over central China, a key driver of Wuhan's August temperatures. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific could suppress temperatures or trigger sudden cooling, though August 11 falls outside the typical peak typhoon season window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.