Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this prediction contract. Polymarket prices the YES option for the highest temperature falling within the specified range at 32%, implying a modest but tangible chance of the event occurring. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects on-chain sentiment rather than abstract climate theory, with traders betting on the precise Celsius reading that Wunderground will publish.

Historical data frames this probability against typical June patterns at Pudong, where daily highs climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dropping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F[1]. The average daily high on 30 June is typically 29.7°C (85.5°F), the highest average for the month[8], while summer climates regularly exceed 30°C, reaching 35°C in sunny conditions[5]. In June 2025, temperatures hovered within these bounds, suggesting the current 32% probability aligns with the likelihood of a day slightly cooler than the seasonal peak, rather than an extreme heatwave.

Traders should monitor the immediate forecast for Tuesday 30 June, which BBC Weather predicts a high of 27°C (80°F) with 84% humidity and steady pressure at 1011mb[2]. This specific temperature sits below the monthly average, potentially validating the YES outcome if the range includes 27°C. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in shortwave solar energy, which gradually decreases in June, falling from 6.0 kWh to 5.1 kWh[1], and wind speeds that remain constant at 11.3 mph[1]. A clear sky with minimal cloud cover could push temperatures higher, while the high humidity may cap the peak, making the 30 June forecast the critical dependency for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.