Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges, with traders currently pricing all outcomes at zero probability on Polymarket. This disconnect between market pricing and the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded that day reflects either extreme illiquidity in this particular contract or a technical issue preventing normal price discovery. The settlement mechanism is straightforward: Wunderground's historical weather data for KLGA station will determine which range contains the day's peak, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on 21 July.

New York's July temperatures show consistent patterns across decades. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates mid-July highs typically range between 82–88°F, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s occurring roughly once per decade. The record high for July at LaGuardia is 102°F, set in 1999. Most years settle comfortably in the 80–89°F band, making this the statistically dominant outcome for any given July day, though the current zero probability suggests the market has simply not attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly from the National Weather Service and NOAA, which typically issue 8–14 day outlooks by mid-month. Atlantic hurricane activity and heat dome formation across the eastern seaboard in late June would signal elevated risk of extreme temperatures. The contract's settlement depends entirely on recorded data from a single monitoring station, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology once the date arrives.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.