Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, Shenzhen will experience late spring weather as the city transitions toward the summer monsoon season. The highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day will determine the settlement outcome. Currently, the market shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal liquidity or a technical issue with the contract's pricing mechanism on Polygon. Traders holding conditional tokens tied to specific temperature brackets face significant basis risk until the settlement window closes at noon UTC on 31 May.

Shenzhen's May temperatures historically cluster between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 30-year average high for late May sits around 31–32°C. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from seasonal norms, suggesting the market may lack sufficient USDC liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket typically show non-zero probabilities even for unlikely outcomes; this contract's current state warrants scrutiny before committing capital.

The key variable affecting May 31 temperatures will be the timing and intensity of pre-monsoon systems. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues 10-day forecasts by late May, though these carry substantial uncertainty. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during May can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems from the north drive heat. Traders should monitor official forecasts released in the week preceding settlement, as these will provide the most reliable indication of whether temperatures will breach the 35°C threshold or remain in the typical 28–32°C range.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.