Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Shanghai will record a daily high temperature at Pudong International Airport, the official measurement station for the city. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, reflecting the settlement window's closure at midday UTC—roughly 8 p.m. Shanghai local time—which captures only the morning and early afternoon portion of the day. This timing constraint means the market cannot settle on the full daily maximum, creating structural friction between the contract mechanics and the underlying meteorological event.

Shanghai's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The 0% probability across all buckets suggests traders view the settlement window as too narrow to generate meaningful price discovery; comparable weather markets on Polymarket show similar flattening when resolution times exclude peak afternoon heating. Looking at June 2024 and 2025 data from Wunderground's Shanghai station, temperatures by midday on comparable dates ranged between 24°C and 29°C, providing a baseline for what the truncated window might capture.

The key variable for traders is the weather pattern developing across eastern China in late May and early June 2026. Subtropical high-pressure systems typically establish themselves by this date, though pre-monsoon moisture can suppress afternoon peaks. Any significant weather announcements from the China Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding the settlement date would signal whether June 4 faces typical seasonal conditions or anomalous patterns. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions settle against Wunderground's historical data pull, making data-source reliability the primary non-meteorological risk factor.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.