Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polygon, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Traders settling conditional tokens (YES/NO pairs) against USDC would be backing specific temperature thresholds that meteorological data from Wunderground will ultimately confirm or deny.

Late May in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C as the region transitions toward summer monsoon season. Historical records from comparable years show considerable variance: the airport station has recorded highs ranging from 20°C on cooler days to 31°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active trading interest in this particular date-range contract or a liquidity collapse, making it difficult to infer market expectations about whether May 31 will trend toward seasonal norms or anomalous extremes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks preceding settlement, particularly any alerts regarding early-season heat domes or tropical systems that could suppress temperatures. The East Asian monsoon onset timing—typically late May or early June—represents the primary catalyst affecting whether conditions remain mild or spike sharply. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull for that specific station, which remains the sole authoritative source once 31 May closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.