Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, settled in Celsius via Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, reflecting either technical settlement mechanics or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak. On Polygon, traders are holding conditional tokens representing discrete temperature bands, with USDC collateral backing positions that resolve based on the single highest reading captured during the full calendar day.

Early June in Seoul typically falls within the transition toward summer monsoon season. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in this period range between 24–28°C on average, though outlier days occasionally breach 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no liquidity has formed in any single range yet, or the market structure itself has created a technical barrier to pricing. Comparable Korean weather markets tend to see meaningful volume only as settlement approaches within days rather than months.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any La Niña or El Niño updates affecting North Pacific patterns through spring 2026. Incheon Airport's measurement station sits near coastal influences that can suppress extreme heat compared to central Seoul, a detail material to range selection. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 4 June, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once actual morning temperatures become observable.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.