Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 2 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, which currently prices the "YES" outcome at 0% probability. In practical terms, this implies the crowd believes the temperature will not fall within the specific bracket being traded, likely because historical data suggests July highs in Seoul typically hover between 25°C and 30°C, with occasional spikes nudging just above 30°C[2][9]. Given that July is the peak of the monsoon season (Jangma), with humidity levels often exceeding 80%, the "feels like" temperature can soar above 34°C even when the actual air temperature remains lower, creating a steamy, oppressive environment that limits extreme dry heat spikes[1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for shower intensity and precipitation probability, as heavy monsoon rains can suppress maximum temperatures despite high humidity[8]. A recent travel guide notes that rain in July arrives in intense, short bursts rather than day-long gloom, meaning a clear window of sunshine could still push temperatures toward the upper 20s or low 30s[2]. The resolution source is Wunderground data from Incheon Airport, so any localised cloud cover or rain at that specific station will directly impact the final reading, regardless of conditions in central Seoul[1]. With the settlement window ending on 2 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the market remains sensitive to real-time weather updates on the Polygon network, where USDC-based conditional tokens will execute the payout automatically once the data is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.