Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this contract settles into. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0%, reflecting the market's inability to price an event nearly two years distant with meaningful conviction. The contract uses Wunderground's historical data feed as settlement source, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date itself—a tight window that leaves no room for data revision once the day concludes.

Paris-Le Bourget's May temperatures historically cluster between 18°C and 26°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 30°C during warm springs. The station's record for May sits at 33.4°C, set in 2017 during an exceptional heatwave. Late May typically falls in the shoulder season between spring and early summer, when Atlantic weather systems compete with continental warming patterns. Comparable years suggest most outcomes will fall in the 22–28°C range, though climate variability means outlier scenarios remain plausible.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch European seasonal forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which typically issue 10–14 day outlooks by mid-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation index and soil moisture anomalies across western Europe will signal whether late May 2026 trends toward cooler Atlantic influence or warmer continental conditions. As settlement approaches, daily weather models will sharpen considerably, likely triggering repricing across all temperature brackets in the final fortnight.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.