Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport on 9 July 2026, a date when Turkey typically experiences intense, dry heat with average daytime highs reaching 30°C or more across most regions[3]. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome on this specific contract, the broader Polymarket market for this date shows 25°C as the frontrunner at 41–48% probability, with 24°C as the next closest outcome at 36%[1]. Historical averages for Istanbul in July place the daytime maximum at 27°C with low humidity, and the first ten days of the month typically average 27.2°C[4][6]. The July 7 market for Istanbul already settled at 27°C with 100% certainty, suggesting the current 0% probability for this contract may reflect a mispricing or a specific conditional token structure rather than the actual climatic likelihood[2].

Traders should monitor the NOAA hourly data release schedule for Istanbul Airport (site LTFM), as the market resolution depends entirely on the first published data point for 9 July 2026 under the "Temp" column[1]. Recent weather forecasts indicate daily highs in Istanbul for July 2026 will range between 78°F and 91°F (25.6°C–32.8°C), with an average high of 84°F (28.9°C)[7]. The key catalyst is the official NOAA publication time, which must occur before the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026; any delay in data release could invalidate the conditional token settlement. Additionally, traders should watch for any sudden shifts in the USDC liquidity pool on Polygon, as the 0% probability may stem from a lack of liquidity rather than a genuine forecast of cold weather[1]. The driest month in Turkey, with only 17mm average rainfall, further supports the expectation of high temperatures rather than the implied cold outcome[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.