Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius, and this market settles to whichever range bracket contains that single data point. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at zero, reflecting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which outcome will materialise once the Observatory publishes its official daily extract. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically releases finalised daily climate data within days of observation, meaning resolution may lag slightly behind the market close.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius based on thirty-year normals. The city's summer monsoon season begins in May, and by early June humidity peaks whilst afternoon thunderstorms become frequent, often capping daytime highs. Historical extremes for early June sit around 35–36 degrees, recorded during particularly intense heat waves or when the monsoon onset delays. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have either not engaged with this contract or view the outcome as too dispersed across multiple brackets to justify concentrated bets.

Catalysts shaping June 2026 temperatures remain distant but include the strength of the Pacific anticyclone and timing of the southwest monsoon's establishment. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, typically monitored by meteorological agencies through May and early June, influence whether heat domes develop. The Observatory publishes monthly climate outlooks roughly six weeks in advance; its May 2026 bulletin will offer the first formal seasonal guidance. Traders should monitor whether El Niño or La Niña conditions persist into early summer, as these patterns historically shift Hong Kong's temperature distribution by 1–2 degrees.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.