Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Guangzhou will experience early summer conditions, and traders on Polymarket are currently pricing the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station at 0% across all available ranges. This implies either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official readings throughout the day—a transparent but singular data source that leaves no room for interpretation once the market closes at 12:00 UTC.

Guangzhou's June temperatures historically cluster between 28°C and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent warm-season patterns; reviewing Baiyun station data from prior Junes shows that temperatures exceeding 37°C occur roughly once every three to five years during this month. The current 0% probability suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient trading volume to establish ranges, or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing USDC on Polygon's conditional token structure.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or tropical systems that could suppress temperatures. Guangzhou's proximity to the South China Sea means pre-monsoon activity can introduce variability; any tropical depression tracking towards the region in early June would materially shift temperature expectations downward. Real-time weather model updates from major forecasting services typically become reliable five to seven days before the settlement date, providing a window for informed position-taking before the market closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.