Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with long-term averages suggesting daytime highs around 29°C and night-time lows near 18°C[1][4]. The contract currently trades at 0% YES on Polymarket, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not exceed the specified threshold, a stance that aligns with historical patterns where July in Ankara typically features low heat and humidity rather than extreme spikes[1][2].

Historical data from June 2026 shows a similar market pricing 27°C as the likely daily high with 70.5% confidence, indicating traders are accustomed to moderate temperatures in this region during early summer[3]. This precedent frames the current 0% probability as a rational assessment, given that July is Turkey’s driest month with only 17mm average rainfall and daytime temperatures rarely surpassing 30°C across most regions[2].

Traders should monitor the upcoming 2026 Ankara NATO summit scheduled for 7–8 July, which may bring increased air traffic or temporary weather disruptions to the airport area, though its direct impact on 2 July temperatures remains uncertain[5]. Additionally, Wunderground’s real-time updates for Esenboğa will be the definitive resolution source, so any sudden shifts in regional cloud cover or wind patterns before the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 2 July must be watched closely[1]. No recent news announcements have indicated unusual heatwaves, reinforcing the crowd’s conservative pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.