Next Prime Minister of Sweden

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Parliamentary elections in Sweden are set for 13 September 2026, where voters will elect the 349 members of the Riksdag who then appoint the Prime Minister. On Polymarket, the contract for the “Next Prime Minister of Sweden” currently prices Magdalena Andersson at 76% and Ulf Kristersson at 23%, while the specific outcome you are querying sits at 0% YES. Traders settle in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, with shares redeemable for $1 upon resolution.

Historically, Swedish prime ministers have rarely emerged from outside the major blocs, and caretaker leaders do not count for resolution. In the 2014 and 2018 elections, the Social Democrats retained influence despite fragmented outcomes, requiring complex coalitions. The current 0% probability likely reflects that the market has already priced in Andersson’s dominance, making any alternative outcome statistically negligible until new polling shifts the narrative.

Key catalysts include the next PolitPro poll trend, which currently shows Socialdemokraterna leading at 32.4%, followed by Sverigedemokraterna at 19.4% and Moderaterna at 17.2%[2]. Traders should monitor coalition announcements, snap election risks, and the Swedish government’s election security measures against foreign malign influence[5]. Any sudden shift in voter intent or a failed coalition negotiation could alter the 76% consensus, though no such catalyst has emerged as of June 25, 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next Prime Minister of Sweden on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.