World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing **4% YES** for missed penalties in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with settlement via USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. That is a low implied probability for a count-based market, so the contract is currently treating a high total of saved or missed spot-kicks in open play as an outlier rather than a base case.

Historically, World Cup penalty-taking has been sparse enough that a big tally depends on both volume and timing rather than one famous miss. Messi and Harry Kane are already among the tournament’s leading penalty takers in World Cup history, but even the all-time records remain modest, and recent coverage still frames Baggio’s 1994 final miss as the standout individual moment rather than part of a frequent pattern.[4][7] For traders, that matters because this market counts only penalties in regular, stoppage or extra time; shootout kicks are excluded, which removes the most common high-drama source of “missed” penalties.[3]

The main catalysts are fixture density, refereeing style and any late tournament changes to the match schedule, since the market settles on official completed-match data if the competition is shortened or ends early. A trader should watch FIFA’s match list and any injury or disciplinary developments that could shift penalty responsibility to different takers, especially in knockout rounds where one awarded penalty can move the total quickly. Recent World Cup coverage has also kept penalty efficiency in view, with pre-tournament reporting highlighting Messi and Kane’s combined record and the number of saved or missed attempts already attached to them.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.