Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily minimum temperature in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting the market's assessment that the lowest temperature recorded that day will fall outside whatever range this particular outcome represents. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place. Until that official reading appears, the contract cannot resolve, leaving traders in a holding pattern dependent on the Observatory's data release schedule.

Hong Kong's July climate presents a narrow band of plausible outcomes. Historical July minima in the territory cluster between 24°C and 27°C, with the Observatory's long-term records showing remarkably consistent overnight lows during the summer monsoon season. The 0% pricing suggests this particular outcome bracket sits well outside the typical range—either pitched too high or too low relative to seasonal norms. Traders evaluating this contract should cross-reference the Observatory's climatological tables against the specific temperature thresholds embedded in the market's outcome categories.

The key dependency is the Observatory's publication timeline. Their Daily Extract data typically becomes available within days of the observation date, though official finalisation can take longer during periods of data verification. Tropical weather systems affecting Hong Kong in early July—including potential typhoon activity or unusual monsoon patterns—could shift overnight temperatures materially, though such deviations from the 25–26°C seasonal median remain statistically uncommon. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on secondary weather services, as only their official recording determines settlement.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.