Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no material chance that the Hong Kong Observatory’s absolute daily minimum on 10 August 2026 lands in the YES range. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-backed trading on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the live price reflects where holders are willing to risk settlement against the Observatory’s final figure rather than a generic weather forecast.

For context, August in Hong Kong is normally hot and humid, with average overnight lows around the mid-to-high 20s Celsius. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August normals put 10 August’s daily minimum around **26.3°C**, while broader climate summaries for the month commonly show overnight lows near **27°C** and historical lows in the **mid-20s** rather than anything materially colder.[7][12][18] That makes a very low settlement band structurally unlikely unless an unusual rain-cooled or post-storm air mass pushes the minimum down sharply.

A trader watching this market should focus on the Observatory’s forecast updates, any tropical cyclone or heavy-rain advisories, and the timing of the daily extract publication, because the market cannot resolve until the finalized HKO data is posted.[9][19] Public forecasts on 9–10 August pointed to warm conditions and showers rather than a sharp cooldown, with highs in the mid-30s °C and lows still around the low-to-mid 30s in some private forecasts, which supports the 0% reading unless the overnight minimum surprises materially lower.[10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.