Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will determine this market's settlement. Wuhan's summer climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity; the city ranks among China's hottest urban centres during July. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting either minimal trading volume or a technical settlement state rather than genuine price discovery. Traders accessing this contract via Polygon will trade conditional USDC tokens representing discrete temperature bands, with final resolution tied to historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date and station.

Wuhan's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 32–38°C range, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 42.3°C in July 2013 and regularly sees sustained periods above 35°C throughout the month. These precedents establish the plausible upper and lower bounds for pricing; markets that ignore this historical distribution typically experience sharp repricing once settlement approaches and traders reference actual climate normals rather than speculative assumptions.

The primary catalyst affecting this contract is China's summer monsoon pattern and any anomalous atmospheric conditions developing in late June and early July 2026. El Niño or La Niña phases influence East Asian summer temperatures materially; traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration released in the weeks preceding settlement. Additionally, urban heat island effects specific to Wuhan's rapid development may shift baseline expectations upward compared to older climate records, a factor often overlooked in temperature prediction markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.