Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily high temperature, and Polymarket is currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board. This flat pricing suggests either insufficient liquidity in the contract or genuine uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the settlement value. The market resolves based on Wunderground's historical data for that specific station, making the outcome deterministic once the day passes—there is no ambiguity in measurement, only in prediction.

Wellington's winter climate in early June typically produces highs between 10–13°C, with occasional cooler spells pushing below 10°C during cold fronts. Historical June data from the airport station shows that temperatures rarely exceed 15°C during this month, and sub-5°C highs are uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market with a defined settlement source and suggests the contract may be newly listed or experiencing thin order books.

The key variable traders should monitor is the Southern Hemisphere weather pattern developing in late May 2026. The New Zealand MetService publishes 10-day forecasts roughly two weeks in advance, with increasing accuracy as June approaches. Any significant low-pressure system tracking towards the lower North Island in the days before settlement could drive temperatures downward, whilst high-pressure ridges typically associated with anticyclonic conditions favour warmer daytime highs. Traders should cross-reference MetService outlooks against historical analogues from previous June cold snaps to calibrate position sizing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.