Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 21 July 2026 is being priced by Polymarket as almost certainly 12°C, with the market assigning a 100% probability to that outcome and zero chance to “7°C or below” or any higher range [1]. This reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on Polygon, where USDC liquidity locks into the 12°C bucket as the frontrunner, leaving the YES side of any alternative range effectively worthless at 0% [1].

Historically, mid‑July in Wellington at the International Airport Station typically sees highs between 8°C and 14°C, with 12°C falling squarely in the common band for this period [2]. The current 0% probability on any outcome other than 12°C mirrors past years where the daily peak clustered tightly around that figure, suggesting the crowd is treating this as a near‑certain settlement rather than a speculative weather bet.

Traders should watch the Wunderground daily history page for NZWN as the official resolution source, confirming the highest temperature recorded at any time on 21 July [1]. Any sudden shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or humidity could alter the peak, but current BBC and AccuWeather readings show cloudy conditions with temperatures around 15°C and 52°F respectively, which do not yet contradict the 12°C consensus [2][3]. The settlement window closes at 2026‑07‑21T12:00:00Z, so the final Wunderground entry before that timestamp will determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.