Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 at Wellington International Airport is the real-world event this contract tracks, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily record for NZWN. On Polymarket, the contract currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that no temperature range will meet the undefined threshold, while the frontrunner for the actual temperature is 12°C at 47%, matched closely by 13°C also at 47%[1]. This split between a zero per cent YES price and a near-even split on 12–13°C suggests the YES condition is likely a binary cap or floor that the crowd expects to be missed, framing the 0% as a structural bet rather than a weather forecast.

Historically, mid-July highs in Wellington typically range between 8°C and 14°C, with 12°C and 13°C being common peaks in recent years, aligning with the current 47% probabilities for each[1]. Comparable cases from the last five winters show that temperatures above 14°C are rare, while drops below 9°C occur only during strong cold fronts, making the 12–13°C cluster a robust baseline for traders assessing range outcomes. The 0% YES price therefore likely reflects a threshold set above the historical ceiling, such as 15°C or higher, which the crowd deems improbable for this date.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history page for NZWN as the settlement source, watching for any official updates from MetService on cold-front timing or unusual warmth events that could shift the 12–13°C probabilities[1]. On-chain mechanics matter here: positions are settled in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, so liquidity depth and slippage on the 12°C and 13°C markets will determine entry costs as the 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z deadline approaches. No new announcements are expected before settlement, making the historical temperature band the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.