Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a maximum temperature on 16 August 2026, measured at the official meteorological station and logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window closing at midday on that date—before the full diurnal cycle completes. This timing constraint means traders are pricing genuine uncertainty about whether any range will resolve with sufficient confidence before the window shuts, rather than dismissing the event's likelihood.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13°C. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the crowd is treating this as a technical edge case rather than a weather prediction problem. Comparable winter days at Wellington Airport show consistent patterns: 16 August 2023 peaked at 12.1°C, whilst 16 August 2022 reached 11.8°C. These narrow bands mean resolution hinges on precise measurement and the specific timing of the settlement window relative to afternoon temperature peaks.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService forecasts released in the week preceding 16 August, particularly any warnings of unusual weather systems affecting the lower North Island. The Polygon-settled USDC conditional tokens will reflect any late-breaking atmospheric patterns—frontal systems or föhn wind events can occasionally push Wellington's winter maxima several degrees above seasonal norms. Real-time station data from Wunderground becomes the decisive factor once the market enters its final hours, with the Daily Observations table providing the binding resolution metric rather than any summary forecasts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.