Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 9 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, a real-world event that currently trades at 0% probability for the "YES" side on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the market’s view that the specific temperature range being queried is virtually impossible under current conditions, despite Tokyo’s notorious summer heat.

Historical data from early July in Tokyo shows daily highs typically swinging between the mid-twenties and well above 30°C, with heat dome events pushing temperatures toward 35°C or higher [2][6]. For instance, a weather station in Isesaki, 85km northwest of Tokyo, recently recorded 40.2°C on 5 July 2026, marking an immediate record for Japan’s summer [3]. Yet Haneda, being coastal, often experiences slightly moderated peaks compared to inland areas, though humidity can make conditions feel above 40°C [2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat forecasts and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which drives heat domes into the region [3]. Recent news confirms that 2026’s summer has arrived with record-breaking intensity, suggesting volatility in temperature readings [3]. On-chain, the contract settles via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with the final resolution sourced from Wunderground’s official daily record for Haneda [1]. No moralising is needed: the facts show extreme heat is likely, but the specific range queried remains improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.