Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Haneda Airport is the real-world event determining settlement, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome above the defined ranges. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing temperature bands; the frontrunner is 31°C at 37%, followed by 32°C at 24% and 30°C at 24.3%[1]. The 0% implied probability for “YES” likely reflects a misunderstanding of the market’s binary framing or a technical display error, as the contract clearly resolves to specific Celsius ranges rather than a simple yes/no proposition.

Historically, mid-July in Haneda sees daily highs between 28–33°C, with averages near 31°C, matching the market’s leading outcome[5]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda projects highs of 83–90°F (28.3–32.2°C), reinforcing 31°C as the statistically probable peak[3]. Past July 13 readings in Tokyo typically cluster around 30–32°C, making the current 37% probability for 31°C consistent with climatic norms rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast updates and real-time data from NOAA’s Haneda station (RJTT), which tracks temperature and dew point through the settlement window[8][9]. A sudden shift to clear skies or reduced sea breeze could push temperatures toward 32°C, while persistent rain—forecast for 13 July at Haneda—may cap highs near 30°C[6]. The market resolves at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026 using Wunderground’s recorded high for RJTT, so any last-hour spike before that cutoff will determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.