Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently treating a Tokyo Haneda Airport Station high temperature in the relevant August 2 settlement band as effectively impossible despite the event still being live on the day. The contract settles on the **highest temperature recorded on Wunderground** for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with outcomes mapped to temperature ranges and cash-settled in **USDC** via Polygon conditional tokens.

For context, August is normally Tokyo’s hottest month, with average highs around **31°C** and typical daily highs often in the low 30s Celsius, while historical records for Tokyo in August have reached **39°C** and can still sit well above 35°C in extreme years.[1][2][3][10] Recent climate reference points also show August highs commonly near **34.6°C** in Tokyo-wide datasets, and forecast-style guides for Tokyo in August usually place daily highs around **82°F to 90°F** for late-summer periods.[3][6] Against that backdrop, a zero bid implies traders are either seeing a data mismatch, a stale market, or a settlement configuration that makes the listed outcome ranges hard to reach.

The main catalysts are the actual **Wunderground daily history updates** for RJTT through the settlement window and any late-day heat build-up before the market’s noon UTC cutoff, because the recorded *maximum* rather than the midday reading determines the result.[11] Traders should also watch whether nearby weather systems, cloud cover, or rain suppress the afternoon peak, as Tokyo in August still sees measurable rain on roughly a third of days and the city’s highs can vary materially day to day.[2][7] In practical Polymarket terms, the price will move off the on-chain order book as participants adjust their view of the terminal Wunderground print, not the broader Tokyo forecast headline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.