Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve. USDC conditional tokens on Polygon currently carry no measurable premium, indicating traders have not yet positioned significantly ahead of the settlement window.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 37–39°C occur roughly once per decade. The 2010 heatwave saw Kumagaya reach 40.9°C, whilst Tokyo proper peaked at 39.5°C in 2013. Recent summers have produced highs in the 34–36°C band with increasing frequency; the Japan Meteorological Agency's 2023 data showed Tokyo averaging 33.8°C for August highs. These historical patterns suggest the most probable resolution band sits in the 33–36°C range, yet the market's flat pricing indicates traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts closer to mid-August.

The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks ahead, with notable revisions typically arriving 7–10 days before the target date. Any La Niña or high-pressure system developments affecting the Western Pacific could shift expectations materially. Traders should monitor JMA advisories and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in early August; atmospheric blocking patterns or tropical cyclone activity in nearby regions can significantly alter Tokyo's temperature trajectory within days of settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.