Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, meaning traders have not yet committed USDC liquidity to any outcome on Polygon's conditional token structure. This absence of trading activity is typical for weather contracts more than eighteen months out, where historical volatility and seasonal patterns provide the only meaningful signal.

August in Tokyo typically peaks between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C. The city's 2010 record high of 40.5°C remains an outlier; more recent Augusts have clustered in the 33–36°C range. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which this market explicitly prioritises over summary figures, occasionally records slightly different maxima than headline reports due to measurement timing and station-specific microclimates. Traders familiar with Japanese meteorological data should note that Haneda's location near Tokyo Bay introduces maritime influence that can moderate afternoon peaks compared to inland stations.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, typically released in late July 2026, will provide the first concrete signal for traders entering positions. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through spring and early summer will influence atmospheric patterns; the agency's June 2026 outlook will clarify whether anomalous heat is expected. Traders should monitor Polymarket's liquidity depth as the settlement window approaches; thin order books on weather contracts can create slippage, and late-arriving information often reprices conditional tokens sharply in the final week before resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.