Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing a **0% YES** chance on the Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature market, even though the book is still live and settled in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens. The listed contract is currently skewed towards a peak in the **30–31°C** band, so today’s price says traders see the settlement range as already well understood rather than a coin flip.

That is consistent with Tokyo’s August climate, where average highs are typically in the low 30s and humidity often keeps conditions uncomfortable even without extreme heat.[8][12] Comparable summer spells in Japan have recently produced far higher readings elsewhere in the country, including national records above 41°C, which matters mainly because it shows the broader heat regime can run very hot even when a single airport station settles lower.[14][9] For Polymarket users, the key point is that this market resolves on the **highest observed temperature** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Haneda, not the headline day-high summary, so intraday spikes matter more than the final printed summary.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the live temperature path over the remainder of the day, any shift in cloud cover or rainfall around Tokyo Bay, and whether the station briefly touches a higher band before the market’s settlement window closes. AccuWeather’s same-day forecast pointed to about **90°F/32°C** as a high, which is close enough to the leading contract range that even small deviations could matter for the final bucket.[1][3] Traders should also watch for any weather alerts or heat advisories affecting Kanto, because those often coincide with the kind of peak readings that move a narrow temperature market late in the day.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.