Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with 36°C as the frontrunner at 30% probability, while the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where liquidity flows toward the most statistically probable outcome rather than abstract speculation.

Historical data frames how to read this low probability: the hot season at Taipei Songshan runs from 8 June to 16 September, with average daily highs exceeding 87°F (30.6°C) [2]. July is typically the peak, with the warmest day on average occurring on 21 July at 93.3°F (34.0°C) [6]. Recent anomalies show temperatures soaring to 38.3°C in May, marking the hottest day since records began for that month [8]. Given that July averages are higher than May, a 0% probability for the traded range appears inconsistent with the station’s climatic baseline.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly updates for the station, as afternoon rain and humidity are common catalysts that can suppress peak temperatures [3][5]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so any announcement of typhoon activity or extreme heat advisories from the CWA will directly impact the final reading [3]. Recent forecasts for 1 July predict 95°F (35°C) with afternoon rain, a key dependency that could push the temperature below the 36°C threshold [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.