Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract heavily favours 32°C (44.5%) or 31°C (31.5%), reflecting climatological norms and the ongoing Southwest Monsoon season[1]. Historical data from 1991 to 2020 shows July average highs in Singapore at 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C (93°F)[2]. Daily highs typically hover around 31°C, rarely falling below 29°C or exceeding 33°C, establishing a tight range that traders should expect[3].

Traders must monitor the Southwest Monsoon intensity and any announcements from the National Environment Agency regarding heat stress thresholds, as these directly influence temperature spikes. Singapore recorded its hottest June and November ever in 2025, alongside a record wet March, indicating a volatile climate pattern that could push temperatures beyond historical averages[8]. The resolution source is Wunderground, which will log the highest temperature for all times on that day, making real-time weather updates critical for assessing conditional token values on the Polygon network. USDC liquidity and the settlement window ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z mean on-chain mechanics will execute automatically once the official data is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.