Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s July 21, 2026, heat peak hinges on whether the city hits its typical subtropical high of 32°C or dips slightly under cloud and rain cover. On Polymarket today, the contract for “Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?” prices the 31°C outcome at 98% probability, while 32°C sits at just 2%, leaving the YES side of any binary threshold above 31°C effectively dead at 0%.

Historically, Shenzhen’s July highs cluster tightly around 31–32°C, with the monthly average daytime temperature at 32°C and 17 rainy days in the month due to the subtropical high and typhoon influence [2]. The 98% market weight on 31°C suggests traders are pricing in a slightly cooler day than the long-term average, likely anticipating cloud cover or precipitation that caps the peak just below 32°C, a pattern consistent with recent July years where rain events suppressed highs by 1–2 degrees.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station as the settlement clock ticks toward 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z, watching for real-time typhoon forecasts or heavy rain announcements from Guangdong meteorological services that could confirm the 31°C outcome. Any sudden shift in the typhoon track or a confirmed downpour before midday would lock in the 31°C frontrunner, while a clear, dry morning could push the market toward the 2% 32°C tail, with USDC payouts on Polygon executing automatically once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.