Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will hit its peak heat on 13 July 2026 at the Bao’an International Airport Station, with the market betting on which Celsius range captures that maximum. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being Shenzhen’s hottest month with a historical daily high averaging 32°C (90°F) [1][2].

Historical data shows Shenzhen’s July highs regularly reach 32–34°C, with record-breaking years like 2022 seeing sweltering conditions across southern China where temperatures hit 40.9°C in nearby regions [1][6]. The 0% probability suggests traders doubt the temperature will land in the market’s defined bracket, possibly anticipating rain or typhoon activity typical of the subtropical high season, which brings 17 rainy days and 340mm of rainfall in July [1].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground feed for the Bao’an station, the official resolution source, and watch for typhoon forecasts from China’s meteorological bureau, as sudden storm systems can suppress peak temperatures [1][7]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, with 578 observatories in South China hitting new highs, making extreme heat a credible catalyst if no typhoon intervenes [4][9]. The market settles on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens reflecting the final temperature range once the 12:00 UTC deadline passes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.