Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, Shanghai Pudong International Airport is expected to record a peak temperature near 29°C under sunny skies, with humidity at 84% and light east-south-easterly winds [1]. This real-world forecast directly contradicts the market’s current 0% YES probability, which implies the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the highest range being wagered on, despite historical data showing June highs regularly exceed 30°C and can reach 35°C in sunny conditions [5].

Historical patterns at Pudong show daily highs in June typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F (21°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C), with the hot season officially beginning 17 June and lasting three months [3][6]. The current 0% probability appears misaligned with these norms, as similar contracts in past years resolved with temperatures well within the upper ranges, suggesting a potential pricing inefficiency on the on-chain market where USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground hourly feed for the Pudong station, as settlement depends on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 27 June [2]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, the 84% humidity and steady pressure at 1011mb may suppress peak temperatures slightly, though forecasts for June 2026 still project highs between 80°F and 86°F (27°C–30°C) [4]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind direction could alter the outcome, making real-time data from Wunderground the critical catalyst for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.