Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no credible path to the top outcome in the current range. On-chain, the position settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not the headline city temperature but the single highest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station during the settlement window.

For context, June in Shanghai is normally hot enough that highs at Pudong often sit in the low 30s Celsius, with WeatherSpark putting typical June daily highs at Shanghai Pudong International Airport around 77°F to 83°F, and summer highs sometimes reaching 35°C in very warm spells.[2][6][4] That means the market’s 0% read is a strong statement about either the expected range bands or the lack of upside tail versus the contract’s specific brackets, rather than a claim that Shanghai will be cool by local standards. BBC Weather’s forecast for Shanghai Hongqiao also showed a high of 31°C with light rain, which is consistent with warm but not extreme conditions in the city today.[1]

A trader should watch the airport station observations rather than general city forecasts, because the settlement source is Wunderground’s historical daily record for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station.[3] The key catalysts are afternoon convection, rainfall timing, and any shift in winds or humidity that suppresses or boosts the day’s maximum; late-breaking forecast changes can still matter if the highest reading has not been locked in before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. Current live-weather pages for Pudong show warm, humid conditions, with AccuWeather reporting 83°F and high humidity, which supports the idea that the contract is being driven by the exact bracket thresholds rather than by an absence of heat.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.