Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual observation occurs. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on Polygon that will resolve based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date. The 0% reading indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or conviction to establish meaningful prices across the available ranges.

Shanghai's June temperatures historically cluster between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during early summer heat waves. The city experiences the onset of its rainy season in mid-June, which can suppress afternoon highs. Comparable June 13th data from prior years shows variability: the station has recorded highs ranging from 26°C to 37°C on this calendar date across different years. This historical spread suggests multiple temperature brackets should carry non-trivial probability weight once the market develops sufficient participation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any signals of anomalous heat or early monsoon activity affecting eastern China. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues monthly outlooks that could influence expectations for early-summer temperatures in the Yangtze River Delta region. As June approaches, real-time weather models from major forecasters will sharpen predictions, likely triggering price discovery across the temperature ranges. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for the Pudong station, making data availability the sole operational dependency.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.