Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for this location shows July is the hottest month, with average highs reaching 37°C (87°F) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[1][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high range is statistically anomalous given that daily highs rarely fall below 24°C (75°F) in this season, suggesting the market may be mispricing the baseline thermal conditions or confusing the resolution criteria[1][7].

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast for thundery showers and heavy rain, which are currently expected to suppress temperatures significantly on 5 July[3]. The primary catalyst is the National Weather Service alert regarding severe thunderstorm clusters and numerous temperature records being expected, which could create volatile swings in the final reading[2]. Since the settlement relies on Wunderground data for the highest temperature across all times on the day, traders must watch for any sudden breaks in cloud cover that could allow shortwave solar energy to spike the peak reading, as solar input is gradually increasing through July[1]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, mean that liquidity will shift rapidly once the weather model updates confirm whether the storm system will fully obscure the sun or if a heat spike will occur before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.