Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is set to experience peak summer heat today, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record its daily high temperature on 13 July 2026. Historical data for mid-July in Shanghai shows highs routinely exceeding 35°C, often reaching 38°C or more during heatwaves, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range highly unusual and potentially mispriced [3][6]. In July 2025, the station recorded 38°C, establishing a credible baseline for what traders should expect in 2026 under similar atmospheric conditions [6].

The primary catalyst for this market is the real-time weather observation at ZSPD, which will be logged by Wunderground and used for settlement. Traders should monitor the hourly forecast updates from Yr and meteoblue, which currently predict a maximum of 33°C for today, though these models often adjust as the day progresses [4][10]. Any sudden shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or precipitation—particularly the 9.4 mm of rain forecast—could suppress temperatures below the typical July average, directly impacting the resolution range [10].

On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, meaning liquidity and price movements reflect immediate sentiment shifts as the day unfolds. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC, the market will resolve based solely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 13 July at the specified station. The current 0% probability suggests the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the offered ranges, a stance that contradicts typical July climatology unless a significant cooling event occurs [1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.