Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is forecast to experience cloudy conditions with light rain and gusty winds on 11 July 2026, pushing the maximum temperature to approximately 32°C, well below the 35°C threshold that often defines extreme summer heat in the region[8][10]. This real-world outlook aligns with the market’s current 0% YES probability, as the settlement hinges on whether the day’s peak temperature lands in a specific high range that the weather models do not support.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs at Pudong reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and occasional peaks exceeding 35°C during sunny spells[2][6]. However, recent years show that rain and cloud cover frequently suppress temperatures; for instance, on 10 July 2026, the maximum was 32°C, and forecasts for 11 July mirror this pattern with broken clouds and precipitation[4][5]. The 0% pricing reflects this consistent dampening effect, where even in peak summer, wet conditions prevent the extreme highs required for a YES outcome.

Traders should monitor the hourly updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service’s METAR data for ZSPD, as these are the definitive resolution sources[9]. Any sudden shift in wind direction or a break in cloud cover could alter the temperature, but current schedules show no major weather announcements expected to disrupt the forecast[10]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, will resolve automatically once Wunderground publishes the day’s official high, making real-time data feeds the only meaningful catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.