Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range. This near-zero valuation is stark when weighed against historical July data for the airport, where daily highs routinely exceed 30°C (86°F), often climbing to 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[5]. Accuweather’s July 2026 forecast specifically predicts highs between 86°F and 97°F (30°C–36°C), with overnight lows between 77°F and 81°F (25°C–27°C)[1]. Such consistent warmth suggests the current probability may be mispriced, as comparable cases from recent years show temperatures regularly landing within the upper ranges traders are betting against.

Traders should monitor the immediate weather schedule for Shanghai Pudong, particularly the risk of thunderstorms forecast for 10 July, which could suppress peak temperatures[6]. The primary catalyst is the official Wunderground data release at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, which will serve as the settlement source[1]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: USDC funds are locked on Polygon, and conditional tokens resolve automatically once the data is verified. While the thunderstorm risk is a 40% probability event that might lower the maximum temperature, the baseline climate remains hot enough to challenge the 0% valuation. No major announcements are pending, but the 14-day forecast indicates partly cloudy conditions with temperatures hovering around 31°C (88°F) on 9 July, suggesting a warm baseline for the settlement day[6]. The market’s reliance on a single data point from Wunderground means any anomaly in that specific feed could disproportionately swing the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.