Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai around this date point to daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C, which aligns with the market-implied odds rather than the abstract 0% YES probability for the highest range[1][2]. Historical climate data for Shanghai Pudong in July shows daily high temperatures typically rising from 84°F to 88°F, rarely falling below 75°F or exceeding 95°F, with summer highs regularly exceeding 30°C during sunny spells[4][6]. This suggests the current market pricing, where "26°C" holds a 77% frontrunner position, reflects a conservative view compared to the usual summer intensity where temperatures often breach 30°C[1].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily release for ZSPD on 1 July, as this is the definitive resolution source for the conditional tokens on the Polygon network[1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in the East South Easterly wind patterns or humidity levels, which are currently high at 84% and could suppress peak temperatures[3]. While the forecast for Wednesday 1st July indicates a high of 26°C, the broader July trend shows temperatures climbing to 29°C by 2nd July, meaning a late-summer heat spike could alter the outcome if the monsoon front delays[3]. The on-chain mechanics using USDC ensure that payouts are settled automatically once the Wunderground data confirms the temperature range, making the timing of the data release critical for position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.