Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES on Polygon, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature band resolving true. This reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting a precise daily maximum eight months ahead, though the settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date itself, allowing only partial observation of the day's peak.

Historical August temperatures in Shanghai provide the essential baseline for calibrating expectations. The city's August average high sits around 32–33°C, with extremes ranging from 28°C in cooler years to 38–40°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed Shanghai to 40.6°C; more recently, August 2022 saw sustained highs above 35°C. These precedents suggest the market's zero probability reflects not the implausibility of any single temperature range, but rather the fragmentation of probability mass across multiple possible outcomes and the technical friction of on-chain conditional token mechanics.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat domes or tropical cyclone activity—both common drivers of August extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region. Real-time weather model updates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS will sharpen probability distributions as August approaches. Settlement hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, making data source reliability a material consideration for position holders.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.