Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Shanghai temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which means conditional tokens on Polygon are trading as if the auctioned temperature band for 10 August 2026 will not match the queried range. The market settles against the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table** for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the relevant number is the peak recorded reading in that table, not the headline “Day High & Low” figure.[8]

For context, Shanghai in August is typically hot and humid, with average highs around **32°C** and lows around **26°C**, and recent historical pages for the city show August highs commonly in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with occasional spikes into the high 30s.[5][7] Weather history pages for early August also show that daily maxima can shift quickly with rain, cloud and airflow, which matters because a single hotter observation can move the outcome into a different settlement band even if the day’s summary high looks similar.[1][10]

A trader watching this on-chain should focus on the live observation feed rather than the forecast banner: if showers, overcast conditions or strong wind persist through the day, the odds of an extreme top reading fall, while a brief clearing can still produce a late-day spike. Timeanddate’s current Shanghai forecast points to **overcast, rain and a high around 83°F/28°C**, but the market uses the actual Weather Underground observations for resolution, so the path of intraday readings matters more than the forecast headline.[12][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.